Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage
Researchers have developed a novel physics-informed generative framework to model yield curve dynamics, addressing the conflict between deep learning's flexibility and fixed-income modeling's theoretical constraints. The proposed two-stage architecture, featuring a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) and a Neural Stochastic Differential Equation penalized by a No-Arbitrage PDE, significantly reduces forecasting errors. This approach demonstrates superior performance in predicting term structures across various macroeconomic regimes and currencies, outperforming traditional models like HJM. AI
IMPACT Enhances financial modeling accuracy and scenario generation capabilities for term structure prediction.