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Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions

A new paper identifies two key internal gaps that cause large language models to struggle with strategic decision-making in situations with incomplete information. The research found an "observation-belief gap" where LLMs' internal beliefs are more accurate than their verbal reports but are brittle and degrade with complex reasoning. Additionally, a "belief-action gap" was observed, indicating that LLMs' actions are weakly conditioned on their internal beliefs, leading to systematic vulnerabilities. AI

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IMPACT Highlights systematic vulnerabilities in LLMs for strategic tasks, urging caution in deployment without guardrails.

RANK_REASON Academic paper detailing findings on LLM decision-making limitations.

Read on arXiv cs.CL →

COVERAGE [2]

  1. arXiv cs.CL TIER_1 · Jan Sobotka, Mustafa O. Karabag, Ufuk Topcu ·

    Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions

    arXiv:2605.00226v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with strategic decision-making under incomplete information, such as in negotiation and policymaking. While LLMs can excel at many such tasks, they also fail in ways that are poor…

  2. arXiv cs.CL TIER_1 · Ufuk Topcu ·

    Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions

    Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with strategic decision-making under incomplete information, such as in negotiation and policymaking. While LLMs can excel at many such tasks, they also fail in ways that are poorly understood. We shed light on these failures b…