This post argues that funding for forecasting platforms and research has yielded significant returns, contrary to a previous assertion. Platforms like Metaculus and Manifold, despite modest initial investment, have provided valuable epistemic infrastructure and improved decision-making for users. The growth of companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket is also linked to advancements in crowdsourced forecasting, demonstrating a strong return on investment. Furthermore, forecasting serves as an entry point into rationality and Effective Altruism communities, and provides evidence-based arguments that bolster the AI safety lobby. AI
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IMPACT Forecasting research provides evidence-based arguments that bolster the AI safety lobby and influence policymakers.
RANK_REASON Opinion piece by a named author on LessWrong discussing the value of forecasting funding.
