Polymarket
PulseAugur coverage of Polymarket — every cluster mentioning Polymarket across labs, papers, and developer communities, ranked by signal.
3 day(s) with sentiment data
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Senate committee to markup crypto Clarity Act amid stablecoin and ethics debates
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a significant piece of legislation aimed at establishing a U.S. regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, is approaching a critical Senate committee markup. Despite pass…
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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve chair amid independence threats
Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair in a 54-45 Senate vote, largely along party lines. He takes the helm amid resurgent inflation, economic uncertainty, and unprecedented challenges to the Fe…
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FalsifyLab releases Alpha MCP for AI-driven crypto research
FalsifyLab has released an open-source tool called Alpha MCP that integrates with the Cline AI coding agent. This tool provides access to eight specialized financial data feeds, enabling AI agents to perform complex res…
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MoonPay acquires Dawn Labs to democratize AI trading strategies
MoonPay has acquired Dawn Labs, aiming to make algorithmic trading strategies more accessible. This acquisition will allow users to leverage advanced AI tools for predictive markets, such as Polymarket, without needing …
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LessWrong post offers Guesstimate model for prediction market returns
A LessWrong post introduces a Guesstimate model designed to calculate the expected growth rate for investments in real-money prediction markets. The model takes inputs such as share cost, holding rewards, win probabilit…
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Open-source server gives AI agents live Polymarket prediction data
A new open-source server, polymarket-mcp-pro, has been developed to provide AI agents like Claude and Cursor with live data from the Polymarket prediction market. This tool exposes seven read-only functions, allowing ag…
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Decision markets struggle with trader liquidity and complex architecture
Decision markets, designed to inform choices rather than just predict outcomes, are facing challenges due to a limited pool of informed traders and overly complex architectures. These markets require significant capital…
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Polymarket Prediction Market Sees Top 1% Capture 76.5% of Gains
A recent study on Polymarket's prediction market revealed that the majority of users lose money, often small amounts. Conversely, the top 1% of users captured a disproportionately large share of the gains, accounting fo…
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Developer launches $19/mo Polymarket tool to combat prediction market losses
A developer has created a new tool called polymarket-intel-mcp, available on npm, designed to assist AI agents interacting with prediction markets. This tool addresses a common pitfall where low-priced, long-shot bets d…
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OpenAI's Codex system prompt forbids mentioning goblins, gremlins, and other creatures
OpenAI's Codex system prompt has been found to contain specific instructions to avoid mentioning certain creatures, including goblins, gremlins, raccoons, trolls, ogres, and pigeons. This revelation offers a glimpse int…
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Prediction markets fall short of promise, dominated by sports and crypto bets
Prediction markets, theoretically capable of aggregating dispersed knowledge for better decision-making, have seen significant growth, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now transacting billions monthly. However,…
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Forecasting platforms like Metaculus and Manifold offer high ROI, author argues
This post argues that funding for forecasting platforms and research has yielded significant returns, contrary to a previous assertion. Platforms like Metaculus and Manifold, despite modest initial investment, have prov…
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Forecasting research funding debated: valuable tool or overhyped solution?
A debate is emerging within the AI community regarding the value and funding of forecasting research. One perspective argues that while forecasting has flaws, it has provided valuable, albeit often non-public, insights …